Well, it was quite a night. And I was pretty close with my projection, though I got a couple of states wrong. 351-187 was the prediction, looks like the final tally will be 364-174, as Missouri is still un-called, but McCain will probably maintain his current lead.
Once the polls closed, and the networks released their exit polls, it was obvious that Obama had won Virginia, Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio, although the networks waited a couple hours to call them. So there was little suspense, little nervousness, mostly an emotional ride in the front row, witnessing history. Lot's of tears and reflection.
Reflection of being a young boy in Ormond Beach, Florida, where the blacks lived on one side of town, the whites on the other. Reflection of my realizing that, as i accumulated some black friends, that my families prejudices, and the prejudices of my friends were wrong, and we had to stand up and challenge that sort of nonsense. This was the late 80's, and it was still prevalent.
Finally a recognition that my kids don't know black and white. My kids aren't even feeling the historical implication of this election. Because as my youngest recently told me of a friend "She keeps telling me she's black and I'm white, but we're both brown. I am light brown, and she is dark brown". That's the future, and that's amazing. We made strides in the 60's, but those were legal strides, the divide was still there, I saw it in the 80's and the 90's. But my kids don't see it. So thier generation will be the post-racial generation, and we will finally be past all that in the near future.
I was getting a little disturbed about Obama hunkering down in Chicago since the election ended. But the 60 minutes interview put me at ease. He's not isolating, he's returning to family normalcy before the madness of the white house. Good on him.
I can't believe we did this. Yes we did. i am so proud of our citizens, i am so proud of our country. I wouldn't work for the military if i didn't love my country, because i do. but i have not been particulary proud of my country over the past five years. but i am there now.
God bless america. I am re-energized to work within the government to bring about the change our new Commander in Chief calls for. I can't wait.
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Monday, November 03, 2008
The Math
OK, tomorrow's the day, 11/4/08. The coronation of King Obama, as the despondent haters say.
Let's break it down.
It's not over by a long shot. However, I believe the best McCain can do is 286 electoral votes. Which is enough, for sure, to win. But let's break it down beyond that to get to some realism.
Colorado, New Hampshire and New Mexico. These are all polling well over 50 percent for Obama, and Colorado had early voting which puts it out of reach for McCain. I have not included these states in McCain's potential column, simply because I do not believe he has a chance in any of them. So, let's break it down from there with the states that make up McCain's 286.
Pennsylvania: Gore and Kerry both took it, but they both were white. Pennsylvania was trouble for Obama in the primary, and don't under-estimate the potential for McCain to use fear to spook these folks into aligning behind him. McCain HAS to win PA to win the election, and it is possible. There is no early voting there, rural areas have easier time voting than crowded urban areas, give McCain a 30% chance of taking this state.
Virginia: McCain can lose Virginia and still win. See above and all the states listed below. However, Virginia elected Doug Wilder governor when it was still reliably red nationally. With Mark Warner steamrolling to a 30 point win in the senate, Northern Virginia energized and crazy for Obama, Hampton Roads tracking ahead for Obama, McCain is in big trouble here. Give McCain less of chance in Va. than in PA. 20%.
North Carolina: Black early voting has been incredible in this state, and will be the difference in allowing Kay Hagan to unseat Liddy Dole in the Senate. However, Kay Hagan is white, Obama is black, and that's Obama's problem here. If NC falls, Obama's heading for a landslide, otherwise, McCain retains this state, but his chances of doing so are only 55%.
Ohio: Another state that would be blue this year if the candidate wasn't Obama. Unfortunately, the last minute revelation about the coal industry comments might be additional fuel to inspire anti-Obama turnout. Hillary kicked his ass here, McCain will be hard pressed to win, but I give him a 55% chance.
Nevada: Red state normally, it's all about Reno and the surrounding area. Early voting favors Obama, not really a McCain priority, but he can win if everything starts breaking his way at the end. 40% chance of taking Nevada.
Missouri: Mizzou always picks the winner. Obama needs big margins in the cities, needs to have organization turn out in the middle. Polls have McCain moving the polls, he could take this state and lose the election, which will be a first in a while. Missouri is actually going to have to be listed as 50%.
Indiana: Reliably red, Obama might have wasted money here. Mitch Daniels is a popular Republican governor and will win easily. Gary and Indianapolis turnout and margins have to be insane for Obama to pull this one off, and again, he lost the state to Hillary, so he starts from a position of weakness. McCain has a 65% chance in this state.
Florida: More red for Bush v. Kerry than Bush v. Gore. No big statewide elections, huge early voting gives Obama an edge, McCain will have the edge on election day. It might not be enough, but he still has a 50% chance here.
Montana and North Dakota: If these fall for Obama, then watch out for Arkansas, Louisiana, Arizona, Georgia to be in play as well. Landslide Territory. McCain 80%.
My take: I don't believe the polls that give Obama a double digit national lead. However, I do think he's going to win by 4 or 5 in the popular vote. And I think that hands him a rather sizable victory. And all the swing states, except Ohio, Indiana and Missouri, and I predict upsets in Georgia and Montana for Obama. He said he wanted to re-draw the map, and he will.
Final tally: Obama 351 McCain 187
Click on "The Math" to see my final predicted tally.
Let's break it down.
It's not over by a long shot. However, I believe the best McCain can do is 286 electoral votes. Which is enough, for sure, to win. But let's break it down beyond that to get to some realism.
Colorado, New Hampshire and New Mexico. These are all polling well over 50 percent for Obama, and Colorado had early voting which puts it out of reach for McCain. I have not included these states in McCain's potential column, simply because I do not believe he has a chance in any of them. So, let's break it down from there with the states that make up McCain's 286.
Pennsylvania: Gore and Kerry both took it, but they both were white. Pennsylvania was trouble for Obama in the primary, and don't under-estimate the potential for McCain to use fear to spook these folks into aligning behind him. McCain HAS to win PA to win the election, and it is possible. There is no early voting there, rural areas have easier time voting than crowded urban areas, give McCain a 30% chance of taking this state.
Virginia: McCain can lose Virginia and still win. See above and all the states listed below. However, Virginia elected Doug Wilder governor when it was still reliably red nationally. With Mark Warner steamrolling to a 30 point win in the senate, Northern Virginia energized and crazy for Obama, Hampton Roads tracking ahead for Obama, McCain is in big trouble here. Give McCain less of chance in Va. than in PA. 20%.
North Carolina: Black early voting has been incredible in this state, and will be the difference in allowing Kay Hagan to unseat Liddy Dole in the Senate. However, Kay Hagan is white, Obama is black, and that's Obama's problem here. If NC falls, Obama's heading for a landslide, otherwise, McCain retains this state, but his chances of doing so are only 55%.
Ohio: Another state that would be blue this year if the candidate wasn't Obama. Unfortunately, the last minute revelation about the coal industry comments might be additional fuel to inspire anti-Obama turnout. Hillary kicked his ass here, McCain will be hard pressed to win, but I give him a 55% chance.
Nevada: Red state normally, it's all about Reno and the surrounding area. Early voting favors Obama, not really a McCain priority, but he can win if everything starts breaking his way at the end. 40% chance of taking Nevada.
Missouri: Mizzou always picks the winner. Obama needs big margins in the cities, needs to have organization turn out in the middle. Polls have McCain moving the polls, he could take this state and lose the election, which will be a first in a while. Missouri is actually going to have to be listed as 50%.
Indiana: Reliably red, Obama might have wasted money here. Mitch Daniels is a popular Republican governor and will win easily. Gary and Indianapolis turnout and margins have to be insane for Obama to pull this one off, and again, he lost the state to Hillary, so he starts from a position of weakness. McCain has a 65% chance in this state.
Florida: More red for Bush v. Kerry than Bush v. Gore. No big statewide elections, huge early voting gives Obama an edge, McCain will have the edge on election day. It might not be enough, but he still has a 50% chance here.
Montana and North Dakota: If these fall for Obama, then watch out for Arkansas, Louisiana, Arizona, Georgia to be in play as well. Landslide Territory. McCain 80%.
My take: I don't believe the polls that give Obama a double digit national lead. However, I do think he's going to win by 4 or 5 in the popular vote. And I think that hands him a rather sizable victory. And all the swing states, except Ohio, Indiana and Missouri, and I predict upsets in Georgia and Montana for Obama. He said he wanted to re-draw the map, and he will.
Final tally: Obama 351 McCain 187
Click on "The Math" to see my final predicted tally.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)